The big picture policy design analysis

It accomplishes this goal by comparing incomes at various points throughout the income distribution both before and after state and local taxes are collected. This is the predictable result of charging low-income families a The story in New Jersey is very different. By asking slightly more of high-income households 9.

The big picture policy design analysis

Are we headed for an ice age? See below for more detail. We start with the whole 65 million years, then zoom in, and zoom in again to the last 12, from both ends of the world. But, in terms of homo sapiens civilization, things are cooler than usual, and appear to be cooling.

The dinosaurs would have scoffed at us: You think this is warm? On both graphs, colder temperatures are toward the bottom, and warmer temperatures toward the top.

The big picture policy design analysis

Significant temperature events on the first graph show the start and end of Antarctic glaciation 34 and 25 million years ago, and the resumption of glaciation about 13 million years ago.

Despite recent rumors of global warming, we are actually in a deep freeze. Global Temperature estimates over the last 65 million years. Image created by Robert A. It shows our planet has a dynamic temperature history, and over the last three million years, we have had a continuous series of ice ages now about 90, years each and interglacial warm periods about 10, years each.

Since Earth is on a multi-million-year cooling trend, we are currently lucky to be living during an interglacial warm period, but we are at the end of our normal 10, year warm interglacial period. Paleotemperature data from ice cores is considered to be our best continuous record of temperatures on the planet for time-spans up to aboutyears ago.

Annual layering in undisturbed glacial ice allows us to precisely date the layers, and gives us a very accurate time and temperature sequence. This data set is useful because it reports temperatures measured by oxygen isotopes every 10 to 60 years — a good resolution.

I sometimes see graphs of ice-core temperatures or greenhouse gasses that are based on measurements every 1, or 2, years: I downloaded and graphed these data in Excel myself. The following graphs have a time scale in years Before Present BP.

The next graph of temperature from the ice core for the last 10, years the current interglacial period shows that Greenland is now colder than for most of that period vertical scale in degrees C below zero.

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The red portion of the curve is the recovery from the Little Ice Age. The amount of 20th century warming is unknown, since it was recently revealed that unknown portions of the international temperature databases have been tampered with, and the amount and extent of the tampering has not been publicly documented.

It is likely that some warming has continued into the 20th century, but it is also likely that the amount of warming is not as great as the 0. Our current warming is well within natural variation, and in view of the general decline in temperatures during the last half of this interglacial, is probably beneficial for mankind and most plants and animals.

The graph clearly shows the Minoan Warming about years agothe Roman Warming about years agoand the Medieval Warm Period about years ago.

Great advances in government, art, architecture, and science were made during these warmer times. This graph shows the ice-core data up until The last years to are highlighted in red to show the warming as the Earth began coming out of the LIA.

Long-term, temperatures are now declining for the last 3, yearsand we appear to be headed for the next 90, year ice age, right on schedule at the end of our current 10, year warm period. We have repeated this cycle 46 times in succession over the last 2. And in case you are wondering, the previous Antarctic ice cores tell a broadly similar story.

Though the individual temperature spikes and dips are different than in Greenland, the long-term temperature trend on the planet appears to be down, not up. And since it is so late in our current interglacial period, we could be concerned about global cooling.

The big picture policy design analysis

Vostok Antarctica, last 12, years of Interglacial temperature. The US is currently drilling a new ice core see herealready at 1, meters where it is 7, years old, that is dated absolutely by counting annual ice layers, and each layer will be analyzed for temperature, greenhouse gases, and other constituents.

This will give us the best Antarctic record yet. I believe the results will confirm the above. We geologists owe it to policy-makers to give them the benefit of our longer-term perspective. I believe we will regret regulating CO2, since doing so will not produce any measurable climate control, and may actually cause great harm to world economies.

We may soon need all the energy we can produce, if the long-term cooling continues.

The Big Picture

My main point is that natural variation is so large, even if we cease all emissions completely, the climate will still change just look at the graphs.

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